Warriors-Trail Blazers’ Total Tops Wednesday Bets

Warriors (-4.5, 233.5) at Trail Blazers

Pick: UNDER, Trail Blazers +4.5

Model Score: Trail Blazers 110.6-110.2

Tips, Trends, & Analysis:

Members of my content-driven, betting analysis know this time of year in NBA wagering is contrarian driven. One feature that sticks out in tonight’s Warriors-Trail Blazers clash is the total. The opening number (233.5) is the highest ever between head coaches Terry Stott and Steve Kerr. The average is 219.3. The previous high is 231 in December 2016.

The Warriors’ offense is clicking of late, scoring 120.4 points per 100 possessions over its last five games. But this efficiency is par for the course when Golden State gets rolling with Steph Curry in the lineup. Neither team is playing much faster either than in previous years. The over/under is flat out inflated.

Maybe it hast to do with past trends. The Trail Blazers and Warriors have clashed 26 times under the tutelage of Stotts and Kerr. The OVER has cashed in nearly three-quarters of the matchups (18-7-1, 72.0 percent). At Moda Center, the wager is 10-3 in head-to-head clashes with an over/under margin of 11.4 points. Only one contest has ventured into overtime.

This season, the OVER is 18-8 when the Warriors square off against an opponent allowing more than 113 points in their previous outing. Portland gifted 120 in a loss at the Thunder last time out. With Curry in the lineup, the record improves to 15-6 overall. Golden State has surpassed its team total in 15 of the 21 games, averaging 125.7 overall. Look for this number to regress to Golden State’s 119.0 mean as the season progresses.

Wizards at Raptors (-11, 233.5)

Pick: OVER, Wizards +11

Model Score: Raptors 121.6-115.8

Situational analysis and trends available for members only.

Bucks (-3.5, 219) at Pacers

Pick: Pacers +3.5, UNDER

Model Score: Pacers 108.0-104.1

Situational analysis and trends available for members only.