Members Archives- March 2019


Saturday, March 30, 2019

pistons ats tips trends nba over under

Pick: Pistons ATS & UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 69-49-3 (58.5 percent)

NBA Situational No. 228 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 12-9 (57.1 percent)
• Since 1995: 338-223-8 (60.2 percent)

Line Opener: Pistons -2.5
Total Opener: 215

The line ballooned to Pistons -5 from a -2.5 opener despite just 43 percent of tickets backing Detroit across the majority of online sportsbooks as of publication. The Trail Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Joseph Nurkic due to injuries, and may play starters sparingly on the second night of a back-to-back and firmly in the playoffs.

Even if the first team plugs their normal minutes, this isn’t a good spot for Portland. It Is 3-12 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road against defenses allowing fewer than 108.5 points per game on their home hardwood. The Pistons surrender just 106.9 overall at Little Caesars Arena. The Trail Blazers are coming up 4.7 points shy of a 2.9 average line in defeat. Scoring just 105.2 points per game, poor defense equally plagues the bunch, yielding an average 112.7 points on 48.5 percent opponent shooting.

Detroit, which honors the Bad Boys’ 30th anniversary of the first of two back-to-back NBA Finals wins tonight, has claimed victory and covered the spread in its last 10 home games.

Pick: 76ers ATS & UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 69-49-3 (58.5 percent)

NBA Situational No. 173 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 18-17-2 (51.4 percent)
• Since 1995: 412-300-15 (57.9 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The Timberwolves shocked the Warriors as 9.5-point underdogs Friday night, winning 131-130 in overtime. Minny only shot 43.7 percent from the floor, but crashed the boards with a plus-14 edge in the rebounding department.

Don’t expect as big an edge on the glass hosting the 76ers. Philly allows just 43.5 boards per game. Minnesota is 10-25 SU and 13-21-1 ATS against teams surrendering 44.5 or less. This includes five double-digit losses in its last six games under these conditions.

The 76ers have seen seven of 10 away trips stay UNDER a 229 or higher total this season. Look for this matchup to open in the low 230s.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Pick: Clippers at Bucks UNDER 232.5

NBA Situational No. 251

2018 Record: 69-49-3 (58.5 percent)

Line Opener: Bucks -9
Total Opener: 232.5

Clippers contests stay UNDER the total when the offense goes cold. They average 105.8 points on 43.9 percent shooting cashing the wager, as opposed to 122.8 and 49.6 going OVER.

In what situation does L.A. struggle to score? Typically when playing away from home versus .500 or better teams. The Clip, on the road, posts 106.1 points per game on 43.8 percent from the floor against opponents with a winning record. The UNDER has hit in 13 of 15 overall, and by a healthy -8.1 margin.

Pick: Raptors ATS (Hold)

NBA Situational No. 173

2018 Record: 17-17-2 (50.0 percent)
Since 1995: 411-300-15 (57.8 percent)

Line Opener: Raptors -12
Total Opener: 217

The Knicks are in full-tank mode, losing five of their last six by double digits. Their only win in this stretch came against the lowly Lakers—and that by a single point.

Since January 23, New York is 4-23 SU and 8-19 ATS (29.6 percent) catching points on the NBA oddsboard. The team has been held under 100 points in over half (15) the contests. It is averaging 101.6 in this span. Yikes.

Toronto, for what it’s worth, has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 games holding teams to 105 points or less. This includes six of eight laying -10 points or more.

Hold off buying the -12 opening number until the Raptors confirm their starting lineup. Some stars may sit, which will cause the line to shift drastically in our favor. The public will avoid Toronto’s heavy chalk regardless, and the initial offer shouldn’t climb any higher. We’re laying the points whatever transpires.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Pick: Warriors ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

2018 Record: 31-18-3 (63.3 percent)
Since 1995: 844-657-31 (56.2 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

As long as the Warriors go off as 6-point favorites or greater, they are a play ATS at Memphis. The line is off the board as of publication, but our model has it -8 for Steph Curry and Co. This will likely go off steeper if Grizzlies PG Mike Conley sits with a thigh injury. The veteran playmaker, officially a game-time decision, is worth roughly 4-to-5 points to the spread.

Confirm Curry suits up as well. He is everything to the Warriors. The two-time MVP should start considering Golden State and the Nuggets are neck-and-neck for first place in the Western Conference. Nonetheless, it’s that crazy time of year when stars sit for rest, or come up with a mystery cough hours before tip. Since Steve Kerr took over as coach, the Warriors are 35-26 SU and 23-38 ATS (37.3 percent), winning by only 0.8 points per game when Curry is out. The franchise owns a 10.1 average margin of victory in all other games in this span.

This matchup not only triggers our trusty NBA Situational No. 13 trend, but also the intriguing home-dog angle we published on the blog this weekend. It goes like this: since 1995, home underdogs of at least 6 points coming off a straight-up victory in the final 10 games of the regular season are 30-73-1 ATS (29.1 percent) overall. Memphis stunned the Thunder 115-105 as 5.5-point pups last time out.

Pick: Trail Blazers ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

2018 Record: 31-18-3 (63.3 percent)
Since 1995: 844-657-31 (56.2 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

Portland is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS as road chalk this season, covering a -4.7 average line by 4.3 points per game.

Our numbers have Portland as a 10.5-point favorite with a healthy Jusuf Nurkic. The “Bosnian Beast” sustained a gnarly season-ending leg injury last time out, however, so the spread should take a 4.5-to-5-point hit. The big man owns a stellar +3.5 VORP (Value over Replacement Player) rating this season. Averaging 15.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game owns, Nurkic will surely be missed, but expect Portland to manage his absence well against the lowly Bulls.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

buddy kings ats pick nba

Pick: Kings, -1

NBA Situational No. 13

2018 Record: 30-18-3 (62.5 percent)
Since 1995: 843-657-31 (56.2 percent)

Line Opener: Kings, -1
Total Opener: 226.5

The Kings are 26-9 SU and 21-14 ATS (60.0 percent) as betting favorites since head coach Dave Joerger took control in 2017. His squad has excelled against poor assist-to-turnover defensive teams, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS versus those yielding a 1.84 ratio or higher. The Mavericks currently rank 23rd in this category with a 1.85 rate. Sacramento is covering a -5.1 average line in this spot by 4.1 points per game.

Dallas, meanwhile, is 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games, allowing 114.3 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting. They are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS with a whopping -13.1 average cover margin against foes winning five or fewer of their last 10 games. The Kings enter winners of four in this stretch.

Pick: Spurs, -3

NBA Situational No. 173

2018 Record: 17-16-2 (51.5 percent)
Since 1995: 411-299-15 (57.9 percent)

Line Opener: Spurs, -3
Total Opener: 220.5

The Spurs, like usual under head coach Greg Popovich, excel at protecting the rim. This is bad news for the Hornets’ offense. Charlotte has tipped off underdogs 35 times this season. Half (17) of these games have come against defenses allowing more than 47.5 points per game in the paint. The team puts up 112.2 points on 44.2 percent shooting. It is 7-9 ATS with a -0.19 cover differential. When squaring off against foes surrendering fewer from the area, the Hornets ATS record tumbles to 6-12 with a -5.7 margin. Scoring slumps to a 102.2 average on 41.8 percent shooting. San Antonio yields 46.6 points per game from the paint, sixth best in the NBA.

Monday, March 25, 2019

portland nba trends pick against the spread

Pick: Trail Blazers, -6

NBA Situational No. 228

2018 Record: 11-8 (57.9 percent)

Line Opener: Trail Blazers, -5.5
Total Opener: 225.5

We hate to bet against Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson catching points on the road (60-42-3, 58.8 percent since taking over in October 2016), but his squad heads into Portland a tad inflated. Since the All-Star break, Brooklyn has played three teams with a winning percentage better than 55.0 percent. It is 0-3 SU, losing by 10.3 points per game. The Trail Blazers’ 62.5 percent is the highest of all. Our model puts Portland nearer to -7.5 on the board.

Pick: 76ers at Magic, UNDER 220

NBA Situational No. 251

2018 Record: 68-48-3 (58.6 percent)

Line Opener: 76ers, -3
Total Opener: 219.5

The UNDER has cashed in seven of the last eight games with the Magic tipping off underdogs. A 205.4 average final score is coming up a whopping 13.3 points shy of a 218.7 total. Orlando is holding opponents to 11.9 points per game below their projected betting market team total in this span.

Pick: Thunder, -5.5

NBA Situational No. 173

2018 Record: 17-15-2 (53.1 percent)

Line Opener: Thunder, -5
Total Opener: 219.5

The Thunder are 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS since the All-Star break, plagued by cold shooting in spurts from stars Russell Westbrook and Paul George. A brutally hard schedule partly attributes to the team’s recent funk. OKC has played a winning team in all but three of the 16 contests. Memphis enters with a 29-44 SU mark.

OKC has won nine straight against the Grizz, covering the spread in two-thirds of the meetings. The team knows it needs to take advantage of “winnable” contests to stay afloat in the postseason race with five of nine remaining in the regular season against playoff-bound opponents

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Situational trend No. 251—which is our bread-and-butter investment this season—zeros in on three matchups for Saturday, March 23, but we recommend wagering only one: the Celtics at Hornets UNDER. The Jazz at Bulls and 76ers at Hawks comprise the other two contests.

Pick: Celtics at Hornets UNDER 222

NBA Situational No. 251

2018 Record: 299-197-12 (60.3 percent)

Line Opener: Celtics -3.5
Total Opener: 222

The Celtics and Hornets have combined for four straight OVERS in the last calendar year, but the 222 opener is the highest total ever in the matchup according to our database (2004 to present).

Realistically out of the playoff mix, the Hornets are tinkering with their lineup late in the season, preferring youth over the old guard. Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, Devonte’ Graham, and Willy Hernangomez all played increased minutes in an 113-106 win over the Timberwolves Thursday night. Dwayne Bacon, in fact, got the start over Nicolas Batum in the victory. Mistakes will happen in the new rotations, and a disciplined team like the Celtics will not let them go unpunished.

Charlotte’s slowed-down scoring of late is a concern, too. The Hornets have played five teams in the last calendar month allowing fewer than 111 points per game for the season. They are 0-5 SU and ATS, averaging a paltry 97.4 points on 40.7 percent from the field. The UNDER is 2-1-2 under these conditions. The average combined final score is 207.6 points.

The Celtics will be without star big man Al Horford, sidelined with left knee soreness. This should stunt Boston’s scoring output some. Since coming over from Atlanta in 2016, the Celtics have put up 114 points or more once in regulation time in 15 career road games Horford has missed.

Friday, March 22, 2018

Pick: Thunder vs. Raptors UNDER 226.5

NBA Situational No. 251

1995-Present Record: 297-197-12 (60.1 percent)

Line Opener: Raptors -2.5
Total Opener: 226.5

Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry is set to miss his second game in a row with a bum ankle The 32-year-old playmaker has missed 15 games this season due to injury. Toronto averages 109.4 points with 20.47 team assists with Lowry out, as opposed to 115.5 and 26.26 starting.

The UNDER is a profitable 12-4-1 (75.0 percent) when the Thunder take on a winning team on the road. Superb defense is the spark. OKC has held opponents below their projected team total in all but four that finished in regulation time.

Pick: Heat vs. Bucks UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251

1995-Present Record: 297-197-12 (60.1 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The Heat and Bucks clashing in an infirmary is more apropos than Fiserv Forum Friday night. Miami will be without Justise Winslow, Rodney McGruder, and Bam Adebayo. Milwaukee will miss Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Miroctic for sure, while Giannis Antetokounmpo, George Hill, and Sterling Brown listed as possible. Antetokounmpo’s status is holding up the line.

The Heat and Bucks have played to the UNDER in six of the last seven with Miami averaging 96.9 points per game. The two are averaging 15.9 points shy of a 209.5 total in this span. Expect a total close to 215 at tip tonight, but the final score will likely stay in the same sub-200 range. The loser in this matchup has failed to reach the century mark in all but one meeting dating back to February 2017.

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