Members Archives – April 2019

TIPS NBA PICKS ARCHIVE (April 2019)

April 28, 2019

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Pick: Bucks ATS

NBA Situational No. 228 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 13-10-1 (56.5 percent)
• Since 1995: 340-224-9 (60.3 percent)

Line Opener: Milwaukee -8
Total Opener: 224

Since 2002, the top seed is 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS versus the four-seed in the series opener of Round 2 of the NBA playoffs, winning by 11.4 points per game. The home favorite in each, it has covered seven of eight spreads when laying 7 points or more. Milwaukee is 7.5-point chalk as of publication.

The Bucks average 119.9 points per game at Fiserv Forum, most at home in the NBA. Including the playoffs, they have put scored 112 or more in 36 of 43 contests. Boston is just 1-14 SU and ATS when allowing more than 110 points on the road this season.

April 27, 2019

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Pick: Raptors ATS & UNDER

NBA Situational No. 228 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 12-10-1 (54.5 percent)
• Since 1995: 339-224-9 (60.2 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 78-58-3 (57.4 percent)

Line Opener: Toronto -5.5
Total Opener: 222.5

Since Christmas, the UNDER has cashed in eight of the 76ers’ last 10 away games against an opponent with a positive points differential. A 222.4 average final score is tallying 9.0 points below a 231.4 total. The home team has failed to reach its projected team total in each winning wager.

The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 contests the Raptors host a team with a winning record at Scotiabank Arena. The margin is a healthy -7.3 points (223.4 avg. total)

The home team has won and covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings between Philly and Toronto.

Since 2002, the two-seed is 59-15 SU and 44-29-1 ATS (60.3 percent) at home when laying more than 6 points to a three-seed in the NBA playoffs. The Raptors are currently 6.5-point favorites.

Friday, April 26, 2019

Clippers NBA Tips picks playoffs predictions ats over under

Pick: Warriors ATS & UNDER

NBA Situational No. 13 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 38-21-3 (64.4 percent)
• Since 1995: 851-660-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 199 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 9-7 (56.2 percent)
• Since 1995: 208-145-4 (58.9 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 77-58-3 (57.0 percent)

Line Opener: Warriors -9
Total Opener: 235.5

Steph Curry is 28-18 SU and 30-16 ATS (65.2 percent) all-time away from Oracle Arena in the playoffs. Laying 3 points or more on the NBA oddsboard, the records improve to 21-4 SU and 19-6 ATS (76.0 percent). Golden State is covering a -6.2 average line by 3.6 points per game under the latter conditions.

The Clippers are 3-15-1 ATS (16.7 percent) at home when catching points this season coming off a game in which they shot better than 47.1 percent from the floor in their previous effort. L.A. drained 54.1 percent in its shock 129-121 Game 5 victory.

Clippers head coach Doc Rivers is 11-12 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8 percent) in the postseason at Staples Center. His squads have covered just two of 13 spreads when betting underdogs or short-priced favorites of less than 6 points. Visitors have surpassed their projected team total in all but three contests.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

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Pick: Warriors ATS, UNDER

NBA Situational P (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 6-1 (85.7 percent)
• Since 1995: 114-59-3 (65.9 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 77-57-3 (42.5 percent)

Line Opener: Golden State -14
Total Opener: 235

Steph Curry is 20-7 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7 percent) all-time in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs. He and the Warriors have failed to cover the spread in multiple games only three times. Golden State narrowly missed beating the number (-9) last time out in a 113-105 road victory at L.A.

Head coach Doc Rivers is 4-12 SU and ATS (25.0 percent) all-time in the postseason coming off a game in which the Clippers covered by more than 1 point. This includes a 132-105 drubbing by the Warriors in Game 3.

Since 2002, top seeds in Round 1 favored by 11 points or more and tipping off with a 189 total or greater have played to the UNDER in 20 of 27 contests (74.1 percent). The average O/U margin is -5.5 points. Underdogs are limited to 41.3 percent shooting under these conditions.

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

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Pick: 76ers ATS

NBA Situational P

  • 2018 Record: 3-1 ATS (75.0 percent)
    Since 2002: 111-59-3 ATS (65.3 percent)

Line Opening: Philadelphia -8
Total Opening: 235

Since 2002, two- and three-seeds returning home off a road chalk win are 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9 percent) in round 1 of the NBA playoffs. They are covering a -9.8 average line by 4.7 points per game. The 76ers trigger this angle after narrowly covering a 2.5-point spread with a 112-108 victory in Brooklyn Saturday.

Philly is 60-35-1 ATS (63.2 percent) at Wells Fargo Center all-time with Joel Embiid in the lineup. When favored by more than 3.5 points, the record improves to 42-17 (71.2 percent) overall.

The Nets have struggled all year against opponents excelling at crashing the boards, going 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS versus those pulling down more than 47.75 rebounds per game. They have covered just two of seven clashes when gifted 7 points or more on the NBA oddsboard. Philly averages 48.0 total rebounds a night.

Pick: Raptors ATS

NBA Situational P

  • 2018 Record: 3-1 ATS (75.0 percent)
    Since 2002: 111-59-3 ATS (65.3 percent)

Line Opening: Toronto -11
Total Opening: 205

Since 2002, two- and three-seeds returning home off a road chalk win are 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9 percent) in round 1 of the NBA playoffs. They are covering a -9.8 average line by 4.7 points per game. The Raptors, who routed the Magic 107-85 and 5.5-point favorites on Sunday, fall under these conditions Tuesday night.

Including two appearances with the Hornets, Magic head coach Steve Clifford is 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS all-time in the postseason as the betting underdog. He has dropped all three contests coming off a home loss in this spot by an average of 22 points, failing to cover a 6.7 spread by 15.3 points.

Monday, April 22, 2019

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Pick: Bucks ATS

NBA Situational P

2018 Record: 3-1 ATS (75.0 percent)
Since 2002: 111-59-3 ATS (65.3 percent)

Opening Line: Milwaukee -10.5
Opening Total: 218.5

Over the last 15 years, top seeds favored by more than 6 points to sweep an opening round series are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in Game 4 of the NBA playoffs. Favorites are covering a -8.5 average line by 4.5 points in this situation.

The Bucks are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS against the Pistons this season, winning by an eye-opening 18.7 points per game. Five of six victories have been by double-digits. Detroit is shooting just 39.9 percent from the field, as opposed to 51.3 by Milwaukee.

Since 1995, the Pistons have never gifted more than 10.5 points to an opponent on their home hardwood. When catching 7 points or more in this span, they are 1-32 SU (3.0 percent) and 10-22-1 ATS (31.2 percent).

One-seeds laying more than 8 points on the road are 12-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the postseason since 2002.

Sunday April 21, 2019

Pick: Raptors ATS

NBA Situational P

2018 Record: 2-0 (100 percent)
Since 2002: 110-58-3 (65.4 percent)

Since 2002, two-seeds tipping off road chalk have covered two-thirds of all spreads,going 24-12-2 overall. The record improves to 17-6 ATS (73.9 percent) when laying more than 3 points.

Picks: Warriors ATS, UNDER

NBA Situational P (ATS)

2018 Record: 2-0 (100 percent)
Since 2002: 110-58-3 (65.4 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

2018 Record: 76-57-3 (57.1 percent)

Since 2012, The Warriors are 14-5 SU and ATS in Game 4 of the playoffs. They are covering a -4.7 average line by 4.8 points per game. Steph Curry averages 28.4 points, 5.8 assists, and 1.2 steals.

Clippers head coach Doc Rivers is just 6-12 SU and ATS when allowing opponents 102 points or more in their previous playoff matchup.

Saturday April 20, 2019

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Pick: 76ers ATS & UNDER

NBA Situational P

  • 2018 Record: 1-0 (100 percent)
  • Since 2003: 109-58-3 (65.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

  • 2018 Record: 75-57-3 (56.8 percent)

Opening Line: Philadelphia -2
Opening Total: 233

The 76ers are at their best offensively against opponents allowing above average points in the paint. Versus those gifting more than 48.75 per night from the area, Philly averages 119.9 points (22-15-1 ATS), as opposed to 112.3 per game (17-27-1 ATS) against those yielding fewer. Regarding the former, the Sixers are 11-6-1 ATS away from Wells Fargo Center. Brooklyn surrenders 51.3 points in the paint per game entering Game 4.

The Nets are just 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS as a home underdog this season, averaging 111.7 points per game.

Since 2003, the third-seed is 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS as road chalk of more than 2 points in round one of the postseason, covering a -4.4 average line by 8.3 points per game. Both losses were by a single bucket. Philly is currently -2.5 after opening a 2-point betting favorite.

Joe Harris was held to 8 points last time out on 2-of-7 shooting. Brooklyn is just 6-15 SU and 7-14 ATS in the follow-up game when the Nets guard goes cold and scores 10 points or fewer.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

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Pick: Warriors ATS, UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 75-56-3 (57.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 13 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 37-21-3 (63.8 percent)
• Since 1995: 850-660-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 199 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 8-7 (53.3 percent)
• Since 1995: 207-145-4 (58.8 percent)

Line Opener: Warriors -7
Total Opener: 237

Look or the Warriors’ defense tidy up Thursday night. The UNDER is 14-6-1 (70 percent) this season when coming off a loss as betting favorites. The defense has held 16 of 21 opponents below their projected team total, allowing 108.5 points per game on 43.7 percent shooting.

Steph Curry is undefeated and 5-1-1 ATS against the Clippers at Staples Center behind head coach Steve Kerr. Golden State is covering a -6.6 average line by a healthy 8.0 points, winning their last five contests by 13 points or more.

Since 2014, the Clippers, all with Doc Rivers coaching, have cashed the UNDER in 12 of 16 home tests coming off a road underdog win. This includes four of six games in 2018. Visitors have failed to reach their projected team total in all but two contests.

The current 8.5 points awarded L.A. on the NBA oddsboard is the most for the home team in any game this season. The Clip are 2-12 ATS (14.3 percent) catching more than a trey at Staples Center since 2016.

Monday, April 15, 2019

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Pick: Nets at 76ers UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 75-54-3 (58.1 percent)

Line Opener: Philadelphia -7.5
Total Opener: 226

The Nets have won and covered the spread in all four games coming off a straight-up victory since the All-Star Weekend. Defense proves smoking hot in this situation. It is holding opponents (Spurs, Lakers, Pacers and Heat) to 95.2 points per game on 40.3 percent shooting. A 203.5 average final score is staying a whopping 21.5 points below a 225.0 average total.

Since 1999, the UNDER has hit in two-thirds of all contests (12-6-1) the 76ers tip off home chalk against a Nets team that shot 43.0 percent or better from the floor in their last meeting. This includes three UNDERS in five clashes between Philly head coach Brett Brown and Brooklyn’s Kenny Atkinson.

Pick: Clipper at Warriors UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 75-54-3 (58.1 percent)

Line Opener: Golden State -14.5
Total Opener: 230.5

Since 2003, the UNDER is 33-17-1 (66.0 percent) when a round 1 playoff contest tips off with a line of 11 points or more. This includes six of seven winning wagers for the Warriors since 2014.

Steph Curry erupted for 38 points on 11-of-16 shooting in Golden State’s 121-104 Game 1 win over the Clippers Saturday night. The UNDER is 22-11-2 (66.7 percent) this year when the Warriors leading scorer last time out posted 33 points or more. The record improves to 14-4-2 (77.8 percent) when that player was the two-time NBA MVP.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

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Pick: Bucks ATS

NBA Situational Playoffs

• 2018 Record: 0-0
• Since 1995: 108-58-3 (65.1 percent)

Line Opener: Milwaukee -10
Total Opener: 219.5

Since 2003, underdogs catching 11 points or more on the NBA oddsboard in the playoff opener are 0-18 SU and 4-14 ATS (22.2 percent). They slump to 40.6 percent from the field.

The Bucks average 119.9 points per game at Fiserv Forum, putting up 109 or more in 34 of 41 contests. The Pistons are 2-13 SU and ATS (13.3 percent) yielding 110 or more in a road game this season. This includes a 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS mark as underdogs, losing by 13.7 points per game.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

nba tips picks predictions playoffs ats over under

Pick: 76ers ATS

NBA Situational No. 228

• 2018 Record: 12-9-1 (57.1 percent)
• Since 1995: 339-223-9 (60.3 percent)

Line Opener: Philadelphia -7
Total Opener: 232

The 76ers are 21-2 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2 percent) at Wells Fargo Center this season when favored by 6 points or more with Joel Embiid in the lineup. They are covering a -9.2 spread by a healthy 4.1 points per game. The records grow to 38-5 SU and 31-12 ATS (72.1 percent) in his career.

The Nets rank 25th in the NBA in field goal percentage (44.9). They struggle to keep up as sizeable road underdogs against good shooting teams. Catching more than 4 points on the oddsboard, Brooklyn lost all 10 away contests versus opponents hitting better than 46.5 percent from the field for the season. Its losing by an average 9.4 points under these conditions.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Pick: Thunder at Bucks UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 75-52-3 (59.1 percent)

Line Opener: Thunder -2
Total Opener: 230

The Bucks, cemented as the one-seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs, are resting Giannis Antetokounmpo in their regular-season finale. The UNDER is 6-3 when the MVP candidate sits out this season, the wager hitting in six of seven with a total less than 234 points. Milwaukee, averaging 113.1 points per game, has come up short of its projected team total in each winning wager.

Since March 2018, the UNDER has cashed in eight of the Thunder’s last 10 games it tipped off as road chalk against a winning team.

Pick: Jazz at Clippers UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 75-52-3 (59.1 percent)

Line Opener: Los Angeles -4
Total Opener: 225

The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Utah’s last 12 contests versus Pacific division foes. It is holding opponents to 101.0 points per game on 43.1 percent shooting. All but one has failed to reach their projected team total in this span.

Since 2015, the UNDER is 9-3 when the Doc Rivers-led Clippers return home from a road contest in which is yielded a 52.5 percent or higher opponent field goal percentage. The Warriors drained 54.6 percent in their 131-104 victory over L.A. in its last outing.

Pick: Pacers ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 36-20-3 (64.3 percent)
• Since 1995: 849-659-31 (56.3 percent)

Line Opener: Indiana -1.5
Total Opener: 225

The Hawks are just 8-26 SU, losing by 8.7 points per game, when holding opponents to less than 46.0 percent from the floor in their prior game. The porous defense collapses for and average 121.3 on 48.3 percent next time out. They are 21-25 SU in all other contests, despite going off 6-point underdogs in both scenarios. Atlanta held the league-leading Bucks to 44.0 percent shooting in a 115-107 loss on Sunday.

The Pacers, locked in as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and expected to rest a few starters, are 23-13-1 (63.9 percent) as favorites with a total north of 208 points. This includes a 6-3 ATS mark since the All-Star break.

Pick: Pistons ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 36-20-3 (64.3 percent)
• Since 1995: 849-659-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 173

• 2018 Record: 19-17-2 (52.8 percent)
• Since 1995: 413-300-15 (57.9 percent)

Line Opener: Detroit -8.5
Total Opener: 208

The Pistons need a win over lowly New York to notch only their second playoff appearance in the last 10 years, and first since 2016. They might have to do it without star Blake Griffin, who sat out the second half of Tuesday night’s 100-93 victory over the Grizzlies with a sore left knee. Detroit is just 1-5 SU and ATS with Griffin out this season, losing by 8.3 points per game. Ouch.

The Knicks, however, have 12 double-digit losses since the All-Star Weekend, most in the NBA. The public will likely move the number in our favor when learning of Griffin’s likely absence. Stay patient.

Pick: Warriors ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 36-20-3 (64.3 percent)
• Since 1995: 849-659-31 (56.3 percent)

Line Opener: Golden State -7
Total Opener: 219

Steph Curry is out with mild sprained ankle, which is bad news for a team centered around his shooting ability. The squad is just 5-7 SU and 3-6 ATS with the two-time MVP sitting out this season. Grizzlies’ star Mike Conley sat out of Tuesday night’s 100-93 loss to Detroit with a bum ankle of his own, and is expected to miss tonight’s clash. Consider it a wash.

Memphis is just 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS in its last 18 matchups against Golden State.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

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Pick: Warriors at Pelicans UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 73-52-3 (58.4 percent)

Line Opener: Golden State -7
Total Opener: N/A

The UNDER is 20-8-1 when C DeMarcus Cousins touches the court this season, slowing the Warriors pace and offering a big body in the paint. The four-time All Star made his debut on January 18 following an Achilles injury.

Since the All-Star Weekend, the UNDER is 6-2-1 when the Pelicans square off against an opponent with a winning record. Tipping off an average 8.0-point underdog with a 213.3 total, New Orleans is falling nearly 3.0 points shy of team total projections with 108.6 points per game.

Pick: Rockets at Thunder UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 73-52-3 (58.4 percent)

Line Opener: Oklahoma City -0.5
Total Opener: 225.5

This is the fourth and final regular-season meeting between the Rockets and Thunder. The prior three all stayed UNDER the total by an eye-opening 13.8 points per game. The average score is 108.0 to 101.7 in favor of OKC, despite a 223.5 total. Poor shooting has plagued both squads, the pair combining for 86.7 percent from the floor (Houston, 42.3 percent; OKC 44.4 percent)

Visitors posting greater than 108.0 points per game on the road have cashed the UNDER in seven of their last eight trips to Chesapeake Energy Arena. Houston enters averaging 111.0 points away from home.

The UNDER is 13-5-2 (72.2 percent) when the Rockets go off the underdog or short-priced favorite of less than -1.5 points, including their last five straight. OKC opened as a 0.5-point favorite.

Sunday, April 7, 2019

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Pick: Clippers UNDER 236

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 72-52-3 (58.1 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

Early opening lines are pointing to a mid 230s total for the Clippers-Warriors clash Sunday night. Go low in the final regular season game ever in the legendary Oracle Arena.

Since the start of the New Year, the UNDER is 11-4 when the Clippers tip off a road underdog. They are averaging 108.4 points per game on 44.7 percent shooting, roughly 3 per game short of their projected team total.

In head-to-head clashes between Clippers head coach Doc Rivers and the Warriors’ Steve Kerr, L.A. is 0-6 SU and ATS when coming off a loss. They are failing to cover an 8.2 average line by a whopping 15.2 points per game, draining just 41.7 percent from the floor (101.0 avg. points). Golden State, in fact, has won every contest by 16 points or more in this situation. The Clippers dropped their second contest in a row Friday night with a 122-117 defeat to the lowly Lakers.

DeMarcus Cousins, who sat out the Warriors’ 120-114 win over the Cavaliers Friday, is expected back in action Sunday. The veteran center is not suiting up in back-to-back contests due to his Achilles rehab. The UNDER is 19-8-1 (70.4 percent) when “Boogie” plays minutes, slightly slowing down the offense while dually improving rim protection. The wager has cashed in nine of the team’s last 10 home contests.

The UNDER is 13-4-1 in the Warriors’ last 18 games. Only one of nine contests with a closing total of 228 or higher has seen the final score finish north of the number.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

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Pick: 76ers UNDER; 76ers ATS

NBA Situational No. 13 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 35-20-3 (63.6 percent)
• Since 1995: 848-659-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 199 (ATS)

• 2018 Record: 7-7 (50.0 percent)
• Since 1995: 206-145-4 (58.7 percent)

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record 71-52-3 (57.7 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

Lay the points with the 76ers and buy the UNDER. The line will be chalky, Philly likely tipping off a double-digit favorite with a high 220s total. Watch the spread closely, as it could move in our favor with Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler listed as questionable.

The Bulls are 12-20-2 (37.5 percent) as home underdogs this season, covering just four of 17 spreads under these conditions since the New Year.

Chicago has lost five of its last six games against an opponent with .500 record or higher by 9 points or more. The defense is surrendering 121.2 points per game, yielding an ugly 49.7 percent from the floor. It’s allowed at least 112 points in each. The 76ers, for what it’s worth, are 31-18-1 ATS (63.3 percent) when scoring as many points this season. They are 20-8 ATS (71.4 percent) when laying 4 points or more in this spot.

Philly’s three-game losing streak is its longest of the season. Dating back to December 2016, the franchise is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight follow-up efforts after such a poor run with Embiid in the lineup.

The Bulls put up just 101.4 points per game in 16 contests with leading scorer Zach LaVine injured. He is one of six Chicago players listed as out with right knee tendinitis and a thigh bruise.

Friday, April 5, 2019

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Pick: Heat -2.5

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 35-19-3 (64.8 percent)
• Since 1995: 848-658-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 199

• 2018 Record: 7-6 (53.8 percent)
• Since 1995: 206-144-4 (58.9 percent)

Line Opener: Heat -1
Total Opener: 216.5

Since February 1, the Timberwolves are 10-17 SU and 11-15-1 ATS. Defense appears voluntary during this stretch, the team gifting 118.9 points per game.

In the last calendar month, Minnesota is 1-8 SU and ATS against opponents with a higher winning percentage, losing by 13 points per game. This includes a 1-4 SU and ATS mark at Target Center. Its lone win and cover in this span: a 131-130 overtime win over the Warriors as 9.5-point underdogs. The Timberwolves are 35-43 SU (44.9 percent) and Miami 38-40 (48.7 percent) on the season.

The Heat are 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS as road favorites this season, covering a -5.4 average line by 0.7 points per game. They yield 101.2 points per contest on 43.1 percent opponent shooting under these conditions.

Should bettors expect a barnburner pace? The pair combined for 217 points during their last meeting on December 30, despite shooting 41.1 percent (Heat) and 40.4 percent (T-wolves) from the floor. The over/under closed at 211 for the matchup. Oddsmakers set the number at 216.5 for tonight’s tilt.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

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Pick: Bucks at 76ers UNDER

NBA Situational No. 251

• 2018 Record: 71-51-3 (58.2 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The 76ers have hosted eight teams at Wells Fargo Center this season with a higher winning percentage. All but one visitor (Raptors, Feb. 5) scored more than their projected team total in the betting market. Philly is allowing 106.8 points per game in this spot, which is 4.4 below expectations (-4.8 avg. line, 227.1 avg. total).

Sixers star center Joel Embiid is expected to return from a three-game absence due to left knee tendinitis, which will help defensively. The franchise allows 115.7 points per game in 16 the towering rim-protector has sat out this year, as opposed to 111.6 when starting.

The Bucks, meanwhile, have cashed the UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games with a line in-between 5 points. They will likely open favorites by a bucket when the lines come out.

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

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Pick: Jazz ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 34-18-3 (65.4 percent)
• Since 1995: 847-657-31 (56.3 percent)

NBA Situational No. 999

• 2018 Record: 3-2 (60.0 percent)
• Since 1995: 75-30-1 (71.4 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The Jazz, currently positioned as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoff race with five regular-season games to go, have taken care of business as away chalk since the New Year. They are 8-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite in 2019, covering a -7.3 average line by 5.8 points per game.

Since Quin Snyder took over as Utah head coach in 2014, the franchise is 40-10 SU and 41-9 ATS on the road when scoring 108 points or more in non-overtime games. This includes a 16-5 SU and ATS mark this season. The hapless Suns have allowed as many points in 20 of their last 23 home contests during regulation play, including their last six straight. Phoenix is yielding 116.7 points to visitors in this span.

Pick: Celtics ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 34-18-3 (65.4 percent)
• Since 1995: 847-657-31 (56.3 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The Celtics’ recent skid is well advertised, but do know Miami is just 4-8 SU and ATS in its last 12 home games hosting a team with a higher winning percentage.

In his career, Boston head coach Brad Stevens is 53-30 SU (63.9 percent) in regular-season road contests when his squad tips off with five or more victories for the season than its opponent. He is 17-9 SU and ATS with a spread in-between 2.5 points in this situation. Advanced lines show the Celtics laying 1-2 points, depending on the bet shop. Boston owns 46 wins to 38 for Miami.

Pick: 76ers ATS

NBA Situational No. 13

• 2018 Record: 34-18-3 (65.4 percent)
• Since 1995: 847-657-31 (56.3 percent)

Line Opener: N/A
Total Opener: N/A

The Hawks stunned the 76ers in their last two meetings, winning 123-122 as 10-point underdogs in Philly on January 11, and 129-127 as 7-point pups in Atlanta 11 days ago. The cumulative 17-point spread is the third most ever in this scenario for Atlanta. Since 1995, it is 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS in follow-up efforts when the lines combine for 13 points or more under these conditions. Expect the Sixers to exceed expectations tonight.

Line Watch

If the Mavericks slip to underdog status by tip off, back the visiting Timberwolves ATS. The line change will trigger NBA Situational No. 199 (206-144-4, 58.9 percent since 1995).

If the Pacers move to the betting favorite by game time, back them ATS at the Pistons. The line move enables NBA Situational No. 173 (413-300, 57.9 percent since 1995).

Monday, April 1, 2019

nba picks tips ats over under trends milwaukee

Pick: Bucks UNDER 228

NBA Situational No. 251 (UNDER)

• 2018 Record: 71-50-3 (58.7 percent)

Line Opener: Bucks -3.5
Total Opener: 228

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer is aiming for Giannis Antetokounmpo to return from an ankle injury at some point during the team’s current three-game road trip. The MVP favorite has missed two straight games. Battling for home-court advantage in the playoffs, the most likely scenario is Antetokounmpo suits up in Philly on Thursday night, giving the injury a few more days of healing.

This is likely good news for UNDER bettors. Antetokounmpo has missed eight games this season. The UNDER is 6-2 with an average final score (219.6) coming up -5.3 points short of a 225 average total. Milwaukee slumps to 42.8 percent shooting with its star iso option out of service, yet the defense holds strong in most contests (42.4 opponent FGP).

The UNDER, meanwhile, has cashed in six of eight home games for the Nets since the All-Star weekend. A stifling defense has held opponents an average -11.1 points below their projected team total under these conditions. This includes four postseason-bound foes: Celtics, Trail Blazers, Pistons, and Spurs.

Pick: 76ers -7

NBA Situational No. 999

• 2018 Record: 3-2 (60.0 percent)
• Since 1995: 75-30-1 (71.4 percent)

Line Opener: 76ers -7
Total Opener: 221.5

The Mavericks (30-46 SU) are playing for pride and the NBA lottery at this point in the season. The 76ers, on the other hand, are building momentum for a run to the NBA Finals. A tank-effort mismatch is likely in the works.

Star C Joel Embiid also has a favorable matchup in the paint against the Mavs’ Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Dirk Nowitzki, and Salah Merji. Expect this to be the difference-maker for the visitors. Dallas posts just 44.3 points per game in the area, ranking 25th in the league. Philly is 18-3 SU, winning by 8.4 points per game, when favorites up against a team scoring fewer than 47.8 points near the rim. Embiid and Co. allow 106.2 points per game on 43.8 percent shooting under these conditions. They are 21-11 SU and winning by just 4.8 points per game as chalk versus those putting up more from the paint. The Sixers yield 114.2 points per game on 45.9 percent shooting here.