late-season nba fade scenario

Betting the NBA is challenging. Investing in contests during the last few weeks of the regular season is darn right taxing with some teams strategically tanking, stars sitting out, or managing the many unexpected lineup changes.

One situation to sift out wagering value during this unpredictable stretch of the season is to fade heavy home underdogs coming off a win. Since 1995, home pups of 6 points or more are 13-91 SU and 30-70-1 ATS (29.1 percent) during the last 10 games to close out the year after a victory. Teams are coming up 4.5 points short of a 7.9 average line, losing by 12.4 per contest.

Below is a table showing the ATS record per season and average betting line of the above-mentioned wagering scenario:

Season ATS Record Avg. Line
2017 2-5 8.6
2016 1-3 7.0
2015 3-4 7.5
2014 1-6 9.0
2013 1-3 9.0
2012 0-0 N/A
2011 0-0 N/A
2010 1-4 8.4
2009 1-7 7.0
2008 4-2 7.0
2007 1-7 8.6
2006 2-2 7.9
2005 1-0 7.5
2004 0-3 6.0
2003 1-1 7.0
2002 1-1 7.5
2001 2-4 7.1
2000 0-7 8.0
1999 1-1 7.0
1998 0-0 N/A
1997 1-4 7.9
1996 1-4 8.6
1995 3-4-1 8.9

All but seven of the 101 matchups tipped off with a team owning a losing record. The average winning percentage for the fade bunch is roughly 33 percent. These are the teams looking to boost their draft lottery position or experimenting heavily with new player rotations and extra youth minutes. Coming off a rare late-season win, look for these teams to fall hard when gifted so many points on the NBA oddsboard